Netflix’s US OTT Market Share to Drop from 36.2% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2021

With the growing popularity of over-the-top (OTT) streaming services in the US, competition in the space is heating up. Netflix continues to maintain the top position in the space, but it is gradually ceding market share to Disney.

According to the research data analyzed and published by ComprarAcciones.com, US OTT subscription revenues for Netflix hit $10.44 billion in 2020. The figure rose by more than $1 billion from 2019’s total which was $9.24 billion.

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The uptrend is projected to continue in the coming years. Netflix will generate $11.76 billion from the space in 2021.

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Notably, while Netflix’s revenue will be on the rise during the forecast period, it will cede its market share to competitors. In 2021, its share of all US OTT subscription revenue will be 30.8%, down from 36.2% in 2020.

Disney+ OTT Revenue Grew by 1,412.5% in 2020 to $1.94 Billion

Walt Disney’s remarkable revenue growth in the period is attributed to Disney+’s robust performance.

According to eMarketer, Disney+ generated $1.94 billion from US OTT subscriptions in 2020. Compared to the 2019 total of $0.13 billion, that was an astounding 1,412.5% year-over-year (YoY) growth.

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In 2021, the figure is expected to grow by a more modest 47.9% to $2.87 billion. It will grow by a further 47.5% in 2022 to reach $4.23 billion.

Similarly, its market share of total OTT revenue has been on the rise and is not likely to stop anytime soon. It went from 0.6% in 2019 to 6.6% in 2020, and is forecast to rise to 7.5% in 2021, and further up to 9.3% by 2022.

As of 2020, Disney+ accounted for a 26.5% share of Walt Disney’s US OTT subscription revenue. Hulu, which Disney acquired in 2019, had a 67.6% share while ESPN+ made up 6.8%.

It is worth noting that 2020 was the first full year for Disney+. Its rapid growth in that period was to a great extent a result of stay-at-home trends and in-demand content. The service announced a price increase of $1 in 2021 which will add $1 billion to its total revenue annually.

Additionally, US video subscriptions are set to generate $119.69 billion in 2021, up by 3.6% from $115.57 billion in 2020. The figure includes OTT and Pay TV revenue.

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Growth is set to slow down in the coming years, with the annual growth rate dropping to 1.7% in 2022, 0.8% in 2023 and 0.25% by 2024.

Comparatively, US OTT subscription revenues rose by 41.2% in 2020. They are expected to increase by 29.9% in 2021 to $38.15 billion and rise by a further 19.4% in 2022.

The discrepancies between the two sectors are a result of the rising trend of cord-cutting. Streaming consumption currently holds a 68% share of TV viewing while traditional TV only has a 28% share.

Netflix Grew Subscriber Base by 36.6 Million in 2020, Disney+ by 87 Million

Despite losing its market dominance, Netflix had a blockbuster 2020 thanks to the remarkable growth of its subscriber base.

According to its Q4 2020 earnings report, the service ended the year with 203.7 million subscribers worldwide. In the fourth quarter alone, it added 8.51 million paid streaming subscribers, against an expected 6.47 million. For the full year, Netflix saw its subscriber base grow by 36.6 million, marking its highest annual gain. The previous record was set in 2018 at 28.6 million.

Comparatively, Disney+ paid subscribers by the end of its first year totaled an impressive 86.8 million. At launch, the service had a goal of hitting 90 million customers by year four. It projects total paid subscribers to range between 230 million and 260 million by the end of fiscal 2024.

At the end of 2020, Disney had a total of 146.4 million paid subscribers globally. These included 94.9 million Disney+ subscribers, Hulu’s 39.4 million and 12.1 million for ESPN+.

According to Ampere Analysis estimates, Prime Video is the third largest streaming service with 140.7 million users globally. Apple TV+ has an estimated 42.6 million worldwide, HBO Max 37.7 million in the US and Peacock 33 million in the US.

Other subscription streaming services include ViacomCBS (19.2 million US), Lionsgate (14.6 million global) and Discovery (11 million global).