Walmart eCommerce Sales to Grow by 21% in 2021 to $65 Billion, Nearly a Sixth of Amazon’s $367 Billion

A massive boom in click-and-collect trends is expected to accelerate Walmart’s pandemic-driven momentum through 2021.

According to the research data analyzed and published by ComprarAcciones.com, the big box retailer will grow its online sales by 21.2% to $64.62 billion this year. Though Walmart’s growth rate will be relatively muted compared to the previous year, its share of US online retail sales will grow from 6.7% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2021.

In 2020, analysts had initially projected a growth rate of 27% for the e-retailer’s sales. Thanks to the pandemic though, it grew sales by 76% to $53.30 billion.

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Its sales for 2021 will nearly double those of eBay, which is projected to rank third with a total of $38.67 billion. Walmart’s sales will also be higher than those of Best Buy, Target and The Home Depot combined. The three are forecast to generate a cumulative $60.59 billion ranking fifth, sixth and seventh, respectively.

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Notably though, Walmart will be far behind the top US online marketplace, Amazon. Amazon’s sales are projected to reach $367.19 billion, nearly six times the Walmart total. Just like Walmart, Amazon will post a considerably lower growth rate, 15.3% compared to 2020’s 44.1%.

Its share of the US eCommerce market will slightly increase, going from 39.8% in 2020 to 40.4%. Among the reasons cited for its growth is the fact that SMBs will increasingly rely on online sales. As such, its marketplace sales (third-party vendors) will increase by 16.5% reaching $220.39 billion. They will, thus, account for a 60% share of Amazon’s overall sales.

Click-and-Collect Purchases will Grow by 15% to $83 Billion in 2021

According to a recent NRF ranking, Walmart holds the title of world’s biggest retailer, with Amazon hot on its heels. Its total sales for 2020 – both online and offline – amounted to $559 billion, more than $200 billion ahead of Amazon’s figure. Compared to the previous year, its annual revenue growth rate was 6.7%.

In a bid to compete more effectively with Amazon, it launched a number of new services during the year. These include Walmart+, a subscription service comparable to Amazon Prime, offering free delivery among other perks. It also introduced Walmart Express Delivery, a two-hour delivery service.

Its growth in 2020 was also linked to its huge brick-and-mortar footprint, which has driven online sales via click-and-collect. It has more than 4,700 stores in the US and 90% of Americans live within a 10-mile radius of one of them.

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Click-and-collect online shopping grew significantly in the US in 2020. According to an eMarketer report, US shoppers made purchases worth $72.46 billion using the method. Compared to the 2019 total of $35.02 billion, the figure marked a growth rate of 106.9% YoY.

It accounted for 9.1% of all online purchases, up from 5.8% in 2020. Growth in the segment is expected to carry through 2021 with total sales increasing by 15.2% to $83.47 billion. Its share of total eCommerce will also grow, reaching 9.9%.

Even prior to the pandemic, the trend already had a measure of traction in the US. For instance, in 2018, 115.9 million people used it leading to sales totaling $22.16 billion. At the time, each buyer only spent an average of $191.20, compared to $503.80 per buyer in 2020.

150 Million US Residents Will Make at Least One Click-and-Collect Purchase in 2021

From the total of $200 billion in new eCommerce spending recorded in 2020, click-and-collect purchases accounted for $37.44 billion. Though it only held a 9.1% share of total spending on eCommerce, it accounted for close to 20% growth in total digital sales.

According to data from Bizrate Insights, 7% of US digital buyers were using curbside pickup, a click-and-collect option, in February 2020. By December, the figure had risen to 23%.

The number of buyers using the click-and-collect options increased from 115.9 million in 2018 to 127.4 million in 2019. During the pandemic year, they grew by 12.9% to 143.8 million.

From the total purchases made using the method in 2020, five big box retailers accounted for a 61% share, amounting to $44.2 billion. The five include Walmart, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Target and Best Buy.

Click-and-collect sales accounted for a 41.9% share of their collective sales. It also held a 50.2% share of their combined growth in digital sales during the year.

Even after the pandemic wanes, the trend will hold its gains and continue expanding at a healthy rate.

In 2021, eMarketer estimates that 150.4 million people in the US will make at least one purchase via click-and-collect. Sales under the click-and-collect vertical will continue growing at double-digit rates through 2024.